Ukraine · 2026-11-06
The National Bank of Ukraine tests AI agents that simulate Ukrainians to spot early signs of rising price expectations
The National Bank of Ukraine is building a system of AI agents that reproduce the country's population structure to detect changes in people's inflation expectations sooner.
What the system is
The National Bank of Ukraine is developing a prototype of a system of AI agents. These virtual agents reproduce the structure of the country's population. Their purpose is to show quickly how citizens might react to economic events, before the bank runs a real sociological survey.
Inflation expectations describe how much people think prices will rise. If these expectations worsen, people tend to buy ahead and ask for higher wages, which itself pushes prices up. That is why the bank watches these moods closely.
Why the NBU is doing this
Public mood in Ukraine during the war can change quickly. The agents receive current macroeconomic data and analyze the tone of news in Ukrainian media. According to the bank's specialists, in September 2026 synthetic surveys based on AI helped spot the risk of worsening inflation expectations in time. Real sociological data later confirmed this.
Other AI tasks at the NBU
The bank also uses AI and big data for other tasks. In summer 2026, after massive Russian strikes on logistics, an AI assistant compiled a register of strikes in a few days, classified 335 components of the consumer price index, and built a scenario model. A language model also processed more than 10,000 records from the ACLED database on Russian shelling.
The NBU monitors search queries and social media reactions. For example, news about the 2,000 UAH banknote did not cause concern, while sentiment around fuel, food and transport prices was negative. The bank also estimates inflation from alternative data: online prices, satellite night-light images and job vacancies. This allows an estimate two weeks ahead of the State Statistics Service (DSSU), with an average error of only 0.01 percentage points.
Humans remain in charge
The bank stresses that AI does not replace analysts. NBU specialists supervise the algorithms, verify data sources and interpret results to separate real economic signals from information noise.
Useful from the source
- NBU Inflation Report (October 2026) — The official National Bank report that describes the AI agent study and other uses of AI at the bank.
Sources: 🔗 DOU/dev.ua🔗 AIN.UA